The 4-Step Thought Process For Any Major Life Decisions
I can’t take credit for coming up with this. I wrote it down after hearing it someplace else. I have a tendency to write down and save any good advice I hear at any time and keep it in a drawer for future reference. These four steps for making decisions are great, but I can’t remember for the life of me where I first encountered them. If anyone recognizes them, please let me know and I’ll edit the post to give credit where it’s due.
- Ask yourself “What’s the worst that can happen?”
- Ask yourself “What’s the best that can happen?”
- Ask yourself “What’s most likely to happen?” (This is the “risk factor”)
- If the risk factor from step 3 is acceptable to you, than ask yourself “Am I willing to live with the worst case scenario for a shot at the best?”
I know many people will think this sounds too common sense to make a big deal about, but I firmly believe (1) the best advice is often the most basic and common sense advice, and (2) I think common sense is not as common as we like to think it is.
UPDATE:
Mr. Pilkington in the comments says that this four-step evaluation appears in the book The 4-Hour Workweek: Escape 9-5, Live Anywhere, and Join the New Rich
If anyone can trace back the source even further, let me know in the comments.
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Good advice, though there should be an additional step, namely considering the consequences of not doing anything (if that’s an option) and comparing them to the most likely outcome of taking action.
Indeed ‘uncommon sense’ would be a more apt term. This ties in with peoples propensity to respond viscerally from a place of emotion rather than thoughtfully from a place of logic, a failing when it comes to major decisions (or emotional ones like divorce). This goes back to your Renaissance man posts and acting from a place of volition proactively than from fear reactively. Simple but priceless advice.
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Timothy Ferriss advocated this in the “Four Hour Work Week”. I’m sure he stole it from somewhere else.
i use this to make nearly every single decision on a daily basis that might have repercussions of a serious note. can i live with the worst case? how likely am i to succeed? great post.
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This is completely off topic but T, there was a discussionon on the Roissy page about a book by this author named Chinewu (Sp.). Has anyone recommended someone to you that could scan that book for you. I would really like to read that book.
T – question for you about this topic. How many major life decisions do you think one makes in a lifetime? I think about it often and have come to the conclusion no more than five. I guess it all depends on what the definition of ‘major’ is. 99% of life is full of inconsequential decisions. We are made to think every choice we make is major all in the hope we don’t make any due to fear. This is especially true now days where someone else is always expected to make the decision for you.
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T,
You should read 4 hour work week.
Its worth it.
He does bite from a lot of places though.
- MPM
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